Tulsa World has the latest Sooner Poll of Oklahoma’s Senate race (7/19-23, likely voters, 12/16-19/07 in parens):
Andrew Rice (D): 30 (19)
Jim Inhofe (R-inc): 52 (60)
(MoE: ±3.7%)
The gap has closed a bit, but we’re not seeing anything remarkable here yet. However, as the Rice campaign points out, it’s worth noting that this poll was conducted just before Rice began his TV advertising campaign (his latest ad, released today, is available here) and before he won his primary.
On another interesting note, Roll Call takes note of the Rice campaign hiring some former DSCC staffers for key positions:
Rice, a state Senator who remains a heavy underdog in the race, announced some staff additions, including hiring Phil Singer as a communications consultant.
Singer recently served as a communications strategist on Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (D-N.Y.) presidential campaign and last cycle was communications director at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Rice has also hired Geri Prado, former deputy national political and field director for Clinton’s presidential team, as campaign manager. Last cycle, Prado was deputy political director for the DSCC.
Despite Rice’s underdog status, DSCC Chairman Charles Schumer (N.Y.) has been high on the candidate’s potential. The hiring of Singer and Prado could signal that the committee is taking a special interest in this race as the fall approaches.
Brad Carson had a high stature, ran an excellent campaign for an open seat and still got crushed by double digits. Obama won’t have any coattails here, and I don’t see how a state senator can ever beat a GOP incumbent here, even one as insane as Inhofe.
We have an excellent shot at winning more seats than we did in 2006, but Oklahoma won’t be one of them, unfortunately.
are why I put Oklahoma in Tier II, rather than put it alongside Nebraska in Tier III.
the toughest states for a Democrat to win a statewide Federal Election.
1. Utah
2. Wyoming (a very close call)
3. Idaho
4. Kansas, (trending our way)
5. Oklahoma
6. Alabama
7. South Carolina
8. Nebraska
9. Georgia
10. Mississippi
specifically name recognition.
particularly those in Dan Boren’s district. Lots of Little Dixie Democrats (Democrats in the southeastern part of the state) will probably vote McCain and Rice is almost like an Oklahoma version of Barack Obama. He’s relatively young, very cultured,from an urban area and he emphasizes a message of pragmatism that focuses on bipartisanship and a “new politics.”
Rice has to tap into his inner populist and start preaching populist rhetoric as loudly as he’s emphasizing bipartisanship. If he can do this and get enough McCain voters to split their ticket, he can win. It’s an uphill battle, no doubt about it, but he can do it if he runs a good campaign.
Rice did gain 11 points and Inhofe lost 8.
I think the DSCC should give Rice at least a month to close it some more. Come Labor Day the DSCC should pick at least two of the following and put significant money in those races. KS, NE, OK, TX, ID, GA.
If ID is still within 10, it should be targeted. If Martin wins big today, and has decent poll numbers, a strong case could be made that he should be the second target.
If either of those things don’t happen, then KS or OK is probably the better bet.
Does the DSCC have enough of a money advantage to target a third seat outside the MS/MN/NC/ME/OR tier?